Tag Archives: Black Friday

Is Black Friday dead? A US perspective

Guest blog by Chris Petersen, CEO of IMS, Inc.

Is Black Friday dead, or just rapidly waning? Data indicates the demise of the premier kickoff to holiday shopping in the US. It’s not just about the economy and consumer confidence, although those are key factors. The retail phenomena unfolding right now is about universal changes in consumer behaviour, regardless of socio-economic status.

Black Friday has declined in US retail … will the same trend happen in Europe?
In the not too distant past, stores were the premier focal point of holiday shopping. Black Friday was an event created by bricks and mortar retailers to entice consumers to come shopping on the Friday after US Thanksgiving, which always falls on the 4th Thursday of November. Since many US customers take off from work on Black Friday, it became the quintessential retailer marketing event to lure shoppers to the stores with “best deals” of the season. The theory was that if shoppers came early to find a deal, they would come back to stores for the rest of their shopping.

Not surprising, the UK and other European retailers adopted Black Friday as a promotional event to kick off the holiday selling season and draw traffic to stores. CONTEXT’s analysis of distribution trends in 2015 was very predictive for UK retail sales spiking for Black Friday. Will the trend continue in 2016?

Black “Friday” — death by a thousand clicks
Increasingly retail stores have been jumping the gun on Black Friday by offering Black Friday sales before the actual Friday. The result in the US is that there is no longer a singular event. Black Friday has suffered scope creep, and it literally has become a “Black Week” of promotions and deals.

More importantly, consumers don’t see Black Friday as just “stores” any more. Amazon and other online retailers have creatively capitalised on “Black Friday” by offering daily online deals across an entire week, or more. This has created a new trend for “Cyber Monday” which is the first Monday after the traditional Black Friday. In the US, workplace productivity actually drops on Cyber Monday as people at work scramble to get better deals on stuff they didn’t buy or couldn’t get on Black Friday. Cyber Monday is projected to be the single largest volume day of the entire holiday shopping season.

Did the same trend happen in the UK and other countries? Compared to the US, the UK has a higher % of sales occurring online, especially for technology. Many of the UK promotional ads in 2016 now in fact show the Black 5 days of deals: Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Cyber Monday.

The net result is that today’s consumer is an empowered consumer. They are not bound by place or time of event. This translates into a much diminished effect of single retailer store events like Black Friday.

Large retailers have privately confided that Black Friday needed to “die”. The traditional approach of cramming all deals into a single day dramatically lowers prices and margin. It would be healthier for both if retailers and consumers could evaluate offers and spread shopping over a period of time. In fact, that is how today’s omnichannel shoppers are already behaving – shopping multiple days in multiple ways.

So what happened in the UK for 2016?
Were Black Friday sales up again this year? Or, did consumers shift more of their shopping purchases to Cyber Monday? How much of their Christmas budget have they spent? The final store sales numbers won’t be tallied for a couple of weeks.

However, CONTEXT is conducting consumer pulse survey right now. We are asking consumers when they shopped, and how much they purchased on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It will be interesting to see how much they expect yet to spend in the rest of holiday season.

 

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Filed under IoT, IT Distribution, Market Analysis, Mobile technology, PCs, Retail, Retail in CONTEXT, Smart Technology, Tablet PCs

Despite continued uncertainty over Brexit, consumers must spend now to avoid price hikes

UK consumers’ confidence in their ability to weather the uncertainty around Brexit continues to slide as we approach the most crucial shopping period of the year, according to the latest Retail Pulse UK Survey carried out by CONTEXT. Across a range of criteria, the Great British public are shying away from spending. On top of this, UK retailers are getting ready to raise prices early next year as the pound continues to perform poorly. This means consumers have a choice to make; buy now – even though they’re unsure about their finances – or delay purchases and pay more later.

The CONTEXT Retail Pulse Survey is published quarterly, and examines consumer sentiment towards the UK economy and personal finances. The report for Q2 2016 showed that people 65 years and above were very bullish on Brexit—indeed, many of those surveyed likely favoured withdrawal from the EU. But just five months later, confidence in the future prospects of the economy from this age group has fallen significantly. While 42 per cent of UK 65+’s expected positive economic performance in July 2016,  feelings have swung massively in the opposite direction with 44 per cent now believing the economy will get worse.

Anxiety about the economy is also creeping into everyday purchasing decisions by all age groups. Consumers in the UK are now two times less likely to invest in electrical products—including smartphones, TVs, and notebooks— than they were in July. This is due to increased worries about the state of personal finances, with one third of all those questioned agreeing they will cut back on electrical purchases due to just this one factor alone.

The CONTEXT Retail Pulse Survey reveals the current trepidation felt in the UK. With the European Commission slashing its growth forecast for the UK for 2017, many expect inflation to rise. Factor in a weak pound, and an uncertain jobs market, it’s no surprise to see UK consumers thinking of cutting back their spending on consumer technology.

Taken as a whole, the Survey suggests a potential negative impact on retailers this holiday season, with Black Friday almost upon them. There is – however – a bright spot: stores looking to make a success of the imported American event and the run-up to Christmas should look to young professionals aged 25-34. According to the CONTEXT Survey, 22 per cent of this age group think their personal finances will improve—the most positive sentiment of any age group—and 19 per cent say they will spend more on electricals in the next quarter.

There are also other indicators in the CONTEXT Survey that suggest UK consumers may be willing to spend, despite their uncertainty. Household saving now stands at 5.1 per cent, a return to the low levels last seen just before the global financial crisis. Unsecured borrowing is also rising, reaching a 10.3 per cent year-on-year increase. This could indicate a more carefree attitude to spending amongst younger demographics. Those savvy enough to see price rises coming could increase the overall spending and make this holiday season a success for the industry.

by AS

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Filed under Retail, Retail in CONTEXT