Channel Predictions for 2018: A global PC Manufacturer speaks about digital transformation

In order to start the year, CONTEXT has asked senior executives from across the Channel globally to state their predictions for 2018. Today’s post is by Ralf Jordan, Head of Distribution in EMEA for Dell

RalfJordanIn 2018 the world will take another step forward in its Digital Transformation. The IT industry will continue to play a pivotal role helping organisations reinvent themselves to realise their digital future. We see three transformations underpinning this – IT; Workforce; and Security. IT centres on helping customers modernise their infrastructure; Workforce focuses on connecting people anytime, anywhere; and Security aims to protect organisations from the one million cyber attacks every day. 2018 can be the year of change and with change comes rich opportunities as industries are transformed, human progress is accelerated and lives are changed.

To see all of Dell EMC predictions for 2018, take a look to the following article: Dell Technologies 2018 Predictions – Entering the Next Era of Human Machine Partnerships

My personal ‘New Year resolution’ is to ‘Learn something new every single day of the Year’. I subscribed to a couple of industry and non-industry newsletters and Vlogs and will dedicate at least five minutes a day on something new. The willingness and ability to learn is in my mind the most critical success factor to succeed not only in our IT industry but in life in general.

 

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Half a Century of Technology Innovation: What’s New for CES 2018?

Next week, nearly 4,000 of the world’s biggest technology companies will converge on Las Vegas for the annual CES show. Now in its 51st year, the Consumer Electronics Show has seen its pulling power reduced in recent years as big vendors like Google, Apple and Samsung save major announcements for their own events. But it’s still likely to attract something like 170,000 visitors, and is widely seen as a key platform for showcasing new tech products and prototypes that will set the tone for the year ahead.

Here’s a quick rundown of some of the biggest trends to watch out for this year.

TVs: time for 8K

The past year has seen 4K and HDR TVs made widely available, with prices dropping lower all the time. This paves the way for some potentially big 8K announcements this year, with LG already claiming that it will be showing off a new 88-inch set. It will feature a 7680×4320 pixel display a massive 16 times better than the resolution of a standard HD set.

Other technology innovations in the TV space we may see more of are: local dimming features to boost picture quality; lower-priced OLED screens; improved voice control and streaming app support; and potentially some OLED-rivalling Micro LED technology from Samsung.

The smart home gets smarter

TVs comprise just one small part of an increasingly large smart home market, with voice-powered AI assistants from the big hitters like Amazon, Google and Apple increasingly positioned as the glue that holds everything together. Expect a slew of announcements detailing support for Alexa, Google Assistant and Apple’s HomeKit protocol in products as varied as smart clocks, speakers and even video door entry systems. Alexa seems to have the lead at the moment, but Apple is catching up fast thanks to new partnerships, while Google is said to be planning a major presence at the show, having booked out eight hospitality suites.

Keeping it real: VR/AR

Virtual reality might have garnered most of the headlines in recent years, thanks to a slew of eye-catching headsets, but its near neighbour augmented reality (AR) is likely to make a splash at CES 2018. In fact, there’s now a dedicated AR “Marketplace” in one of the Convention Centre halls — proof if any were needed that it’s a technology to watch this year.

Expect to see announcements from the likes of Carl Zeiss, Occipital, Kinmo, Kodak, Royole, Sony, and Netflix, as well as chip giant Qualcomm, which has been building out partnerships with some high-profile headset names such as the Oculus Go. Magic Leap is also a name to watch in the AR space and could well be showing off its new Lightwear headset.

AI everywhere

Also with its own dedicated Marketplace arena, AI will see its profile raised further at this year’s CES with a deluge of new products, from connected cars to voice-activated smart home assistants. Honda will feature the tech in its new 3E Robotics Concept at the show with a range of products designed to advance mobility and make people’s lives better.

Named by Accenture as a top-five trend to watch at CES 2018, AI will feature in a range of announcements from other big names including Chinese search giant Baidu, which will show off its autonomous driving platform Apollo and “conversational AI” platform DuerOS.

by AS

 

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Filed under IoT, Mobile technology, Retail, Smart Home, Smart Technology

Collaboration: A Distributor point of view on Roles and Innovation

Adam Simon and Chris Petersen interview Nitin Chhabra, CEO Ace Turtle

As part of our continuing series examining a wide range of collaborative ecosystems, we are examining the transformation of the supply chain and the role of the distributor. The rising expectations of consumers are creating stress points on logistics and profitability for both retailers and brands. Fulfilment the last mile is not only a requirement of the new retail ecosystem, distributors must now emerge as innovation partners that create strategic opportunities for both retailers and brands. Continue reading

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Filed under omnichannel, Retail, Retail in CONTEXT

Collaboration: A Technology Retailer Perspective

Adam Simon and Chris Petersen interview Bülent Gürcan, CEO, TeknoSA

This blog is part of our continuing series examining a wide range of collaborative ecosystems that are emerging in response to consumer behaviour and expectations. While omnichannel is the new normal for customers, retailers are still evolving their transformation refining their business models to balance offline and online retail.

As strategic collaboration evolves in a new ecosystem across retail, there are as many questions as there are answers. We were excited to have an opportunity to explore these issues in a conversation with Bülent Gürcan, CEO of TeknoSA. Continue reading

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Tech Predictions 2018

Every year, our analyst teams come together to identify technology trends they see emerging in the coming 12 months. This is a collection of these across a number of different markets.

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PCs
PC sales across Europe are expected to benefit from a return to growth of commercial PCs, driven by faster upgrades to Windows 10 machines across the region and the replacement of an ageing PC base in some countries. PC refreshes will drive growing sales of thin and light ultramobile notebook and hybrid devices, but will also benefit deskbound systems, as a large proportion of commercially installed machines continue to be of this type. Even in 2017, the shift in business desktop sales towards small space-saving form factors presented a growth opportunity, and this is expected to be ongoing in 2018.

Consumer sales are likely to remain challenged as users increasingly hold on to their traditional PCs for a longer period and rely on smartphones for many of their day-to-day tasks. However, sub-segments of this market – including gaming PCs, high-end notebooks and ultramobile devices such as convertible laptops – are expected to continue to grow. While these currently make up a small part of the overall market, they present strong opportunities for revenue and margin growth.

Enterprise Technology
In 2018, cloudification will speed up greatly as services such as IAAS (infrastructure as a service), PAAS (platform as a service) and SAAS (software as a service) are increasingly adopted across the Enterprise sector.

An early consequence, one that has already begun, is a complete redefinition of the traditional market segmentation into server, storage and networking products. As convergence and scalability become increasingly important, enterprise systems will continue their migration from in-house systems to data centres.

Another consequence is the complete change in how products are paid for. In the past, clients purchased individual products with a one-off payment, whereas they are increasingly paying a monthly subscription for cloud licences with, in some cases, the hardware included “for free”.

The huge and increasing success of cloud providers such as Amazon Web services has left us with no doubt about the future of the IT business environment: it is already clear that, within a few years, most processing power (and, as a result, most hardware) will have left the office and migrated entirely to data centres.

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Displays
Desktop monitor sales in 2018 are expected to be slower than this year, following PC-demand trends. On the positive side, however, business-targeted monitor sales may benefit from the PC refresh that is expected in the commercial space. Moreover, the rise of esports will continue to drive revenues, especially those from consumer-targeted high-end monitors. The gaming market serves a still-nascent industry, which has significant room to grow and provides a variety of revenue streams. Therefore, more monitor vendors will shift towards this market and offer a larger number of premium models. Increased demand for specialised features like 4K/UHD resolution, higher refresh rates, wide colour gamut and alternative form factors such as large ultra-wide or curved monitors, will increase average sale prices (ASPs) and margin opportunities.

Digital signage will remain a key driver for large-format displays (LFD). Standalone LCD displays will continue to hold the largest market share; however, videowalls and the direct-view LED technology currently used in various public outdoor applications will start to challenge their position. LFD vendors will direct their focus towards other emerging and untapped areas such as industrial manufacturing and BFSI*, and continue to compete in already thriving markets including the retail space – where LFDs enhance customer experience – as well as the education and corporate arenas. Increased competition between vendors and a greater variety of LFDs will result in more affordable pricing and continue to spur volume sales.
*banking, financial services and insurance

Imaging
Printer hardware sales are expected to contract overall although, due to the ongoing shift towards multifunction and colour devices, some segments are expected to grow in 2018 including multifunction colour laser printers and, at a slower pace, high-capacity business inkjets.

Consolidation in the market and the transition towards a contractual business model continues, so unified platforms, security, digitisation, customisation and automation of those processes via services and solutions hold plenty of opportunities for vendors and their business partners to grow by adding value for their customers and increasing their productivity and efficiency.

In 2017, we’ve seen most vendors refresh their product portfolios and introduce even more reliable, secure devices that use various new technologies and offer lower cost of ownership and higher print speeds. Vendors continue to increase their focus on engaging with channel partners to target SMBs. HP’s acquisition of Samsung’s printing business is now complete and the company has started shipping its new A3 products. It is expected that sales of these will accelerate and increase competition in the A3 copier market – a space to watch in 2018.

3D Printing
Industrial space
HP will lead the way in seeing if industrial 3D printing of plastics can turn the same corner as metal 3D printing: away from being used just for prototyping and into manufacturing. HP is also to introduce a new technology in 2018 through which it will begin to set its sights on metal 3D printing.

As the other new kid on the block, the very visible and recognisable brand GE continues to gain share and will help push 3D printing even more into the mainstream and grow the market. GE acquired two of the top companies making industrial metal 3D printers last year and will carry on championing the technology internally as well as sell their printers to others. Their use of metal 3D Printing to make real jet engine parts continues to be the “poster child” demonstrating how 3D printing can disrupt supply chains and the $12T global manufacturing market. In 2018, they will push the boundaries further in aerospace as well as in the automotive and healthcare industries.

After seeing fewer printers ship worldwide each year for the last few years, the industrial side of the market will move back into growth thanks to new technologies (such as from Carbon) and big brands (HP, GE, Deloitte, etc.).

During 2018, we will see the emergence of a new class of low-end industrial metal 3D printing machines. While these are, of course, not for the masses (“low-end” in this context still means ~$150k), this new class includes $1M machines that will allow more companies to experiment with 3D printing in ways that were previously out of reach for most of them.

Desktop space
While they have not yet become a “consumer” good, desktop 3D printers have continued the unfettered growth in shipments that has been seen since the market began – it is projected to reach +39% by the end of 2017 and to continue into next year. Familiar brands, such as Kodak and Polaroid, will come to market in some regions, but this side of the market will continue to be dominated by companies like Monoprice, XYZprinting, Ultimaker and Formlabs that have a strong presence in 3D printing but are mostly unknown outside the sector.

This class of products has traditionally been defined simply as printers selling below $5K. However, growth in this sector means further refinement and stratification is needed to follow the market and the $2,500 barrier is now used to define this low end. In 2017, a new professional space emerged containing products in the $2,500 to $20,000 range (consisting of both higher-end desktop 3D printers and lower-end industrial printers). During the first half of 2017, this class grew by 64% and strong growth is also projected for 2018.

Virtual Reality & Gaming
Gaming looks to continue its healthy growth next year, with help from spectator-friendly formats such as streaming and esports – both of which provide sponsorship opportunities –gaining mind share among younger tech-savvy consumers. The recent upset over microtransactions, brought to a head by EA’s mis-steps on Star Wars Battlefront II, are symptomatic of gamers’ growing unrest about business practices they perceive as predatory, so expect rebalancing in 2018. This is unlikely to significantly depress profits but may, in the long term, lead to a healthier gaming ecosystem.

The push for 4K gaming consoles is likely to encourage an increased focus on the same potential in gaming desktop PCs, driving both display and GPU sales. Meanwhile, the recent surprise collaboration between Intel and AMD to produce integrated chips with high-end graphics capabilities feeds well into the already growing gaming laptop market, so expect the emergence of more thin, light and powerful laptops targeted at gamers.

On the VR front, 2017 ends with many new contenders entering the market and established brands teasing new hardware and this means 2018 will be a year of fragmentation for VR in the west. Whether any of these will catch the attention of the mainstream will depend on various factors, although Oculus’s imminent, lower-priced, Go is likely to be a firm favourite. As prices for high-end headsets fall and more big budget games are released, gamers are finding it increasingly easy to justify VR purchases. With luck, this will fuel a virtuous circle for both consumers and content producers.

Also, expect to see a steady flow of interesting bespoke enterprise VR applications next year, but don’t hold your breath for a single stand-out business headset or killer application – unless Magic Leap’s mysterious headset manages to make it to market and live up to the promises and hype.

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Retail
Mobility will continue to gain importance and be a key success factor for retailers. Current estimates indicate that more than 50% of purchases involve the customer using a mobile phone for search, research or purchase. With online activity continuing to rise, retailers must optimise their websites for mobile in order to engage consumers early and often in their purchase journey.

Consumer expectations for omnichannel options continue to rise. The fastest-growing retail option is click to purchase and collect in store. Click and collect now accounts for more than 30% of sales in many stores, and is rising across retail in Europe. A critical success factor is the accuracy and efficiency of the collection process, with more stores having dedicated collection areas. More retailers will also collaborate with distributors for drop shipments in order to extend product range, and enable fulfilment to travel the last mile to the customer’s door.

Retailers are making up for declining unit volume sales through selling more premium devices: gaming PCs, 2-in-1 notebooks and ultramobile notebooks. A key to selling a premium mix is leveraging stores to create an experience consumers cannot get online. Successful retailers are moving beyond products and selling a larger, more profitable market basket by focusing on solutions and services that are not available online.

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Filed under 3D Printing, Displays, Imaging, Immersive technology, Market Analysis, PCs, Retail, Smart Technology

Collaboration: A Worldwide Brand Perspective

Adam Simon and Chris Petersen interview Lucas Perraudin, HP

This is part of our series examining a wide range of collaborative ecosystems that are emerging in response to consumer behaviour and expectations. While omnichannel is the new normal for customers, the transformation is still in process for many brands, retailers and distributors.

Few retailers and brands can independently afford to build their own end-to-end solutions. As a result, the next phase of transformation is collaborative commerce:
ecosystems of partners who can deliver what customers want anytime and everywhere.

The culmination of this blog series will be a panel discussion at our CEO Breakfast at CES2018. We have invited three senior executives to share their perspectives from three points of view: Brand/Supplier, Distributor, and the Retailer. Continue reading

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Will the rapidly falling price of VR lead to mass adoption?

One of the biggest stories for VR in 2017 has been the significant reduction in price for VR headsets. Possibly spurred on by Microsoft’s Windows Mixed Reality headsets attempt to undercut the Rift, Oculus dropped the price of its headset with touch controllers from $600 to $400 for its “Summer of Rift” campaign. This is much closer to the initial price point that Oculus’s founder Palmer Luckey suggested the commercial headset would retail for and results so far indicate that units have been flying as a result. With CONTEXT’s 2017 VR Research Group survey indicating that the cost of the headset is still a major deterrent for 45.4% of respondents, 38.1% of gamers would spend $400 or more on a VR headset, compared to only 11% willing to spend over $600.

The other major barriers with regards to cost are those associated with buying a PC powerful enough to run VR games to an acceptable level. Road To VR reports that Wallmart will be selling a comfortably “VR Ready” HP Pavilion Power Desktop with GTX 1060 graphics card for $500 as a part of their Black Friday promotions. For the first time it will be possible to buy a fully VR capable solution with PC and headset for under $1,000 which is considered a sweet spot for gamers and a long way below the $2,500 figure widely acknowledges to be the minimum investment for VR only a couple of short years ago.

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On the console front as well, a PS4 and PSVR was available for $200 from selected retailers on Black Friday, down from $399 normally. Combined with a strong line up of PSVR exclusives, this may enable Sony to maintain or even grow their already substantial lead in the high-end tethered VR headset market.

The question remains as to whether these price drops will be enough to drive mass adoption in Q4. While it is likely that the install base will benefit dramatically from falling prices, which will be encouraging to developers and others with a stake in the industry, there are still a few barriers to VR hitting its inflection point.

Interest in VR among non gamers is growing, but not nearly as quickly as some had hoped. While there are undoubtedly many uses for VR both seriously and as a general entertainment medium, it is clearly gamers who show the strongest interest in the technology for now. Only 4.8% of UK gamers think VR is a gimmick compared to 30.2% of non-gamers (down from 48.3% last year) suggesting that this demographic will be the easiest to target in the short term.

Still, while the potential for gaming in VR is widely acknowledged, many gamers are still waiting for the technology to improve. 61.9% would like to see higher resolution headsets, 74.5% would like to see “better quality content overall” and 51.3% said “one really exciting big budget game” would increase their interest in buying a VR headset.

Will Q4 see the stars align for VR to start seeing significant market penetration and finally create the virtuous cycle required to fuel this exciting new industry? Only time will tell, but here at CONTEXT, we’ll be watching the data come through with bated breath for the first signs of that mythical inflection point.

by BB

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Filed under Retail, virtual reality