Thirteen months after its launch, adoption of Microsoft’s Windows 10 operating system is slowly beginning to increase amongst business users. By August, Windows 10 Pro (excluding the Windows 7/Windows 10 downgrade version) made up 24% of Windows Business PC sales in Western European distribution, up six percentage points compared to July. Whilst adoption in the first half of the year had largely been driven by the Windows 7/Windows 10 Pro downgrade version, July and August were the first months to see the share for “pure” Windows 10 Pro sales grow faster month-on-month than share for the downgrade version, albeit from a much smaller base. The share of Windows 10 Pro was up from 16% in June to 18% in July and 24% in August, while Windows 7/Windows 10 Pro moved from 65.5% in June to 66% in July, followed by a drop to 64% in August. Combined adoption rates for the two versions increased from 81% to 88% over the period.
The rise in Windows 10 Pro share, though moderate for the time being, is good news for the PC industry, which is looking at Windows 10 refreshes as the next larger growth driver in commercial PC sales. Certainly, some of the recent rise in adoption might be driven by the fee that we hear is being applied to the downgrade version, which is likely to cause budget-conscious buyers to move faster to “pure” Windows 10. But anecdotal evidence suggests that there is also a more “genuine” rise in interest for the new operating system, particularly within the small- and medium-sized business segment, as companies are slowly beginning to make the move from testing to deployment. In terms of volume growth, the business segment does indeed see a positive development: Windows Business PCs across our Western European panel were up by +7% year-on-year in the first two months of Q316, and while it would be taking things too far to say that this was entirely down to Windows 10, the new OS certainly did play a role.
Comparing adoption rates of Microsoft’s latest version of Windows to its most successful predecessor, Windows 7, the “pure” Windows 10 still has a long way to go to catch up. The 24% share of Windows 10 Pro that we’re seeing now, thirteen months after its launch date, compares to an adoption rate of 77% for the “pure” Windows 7 version at the same time after launch in October 2009. Things look better however when comparing the two OS’s combined shares of “pure” and downgrade versions: Windows 10’s 88% share in August this year is not that far off from the 98% held by the combined Windows 7 and Windows 7/XP versions in November 2010.
It will be interesting to see if the first few signs of an increase in Windows 10 sales will translate into a more significant growth trend over the next few months. Expectations are for the commercial segment to start refreshes in earnest at the beginning of 2017, with larger enterprises transitioning over the course of the next two years. We will be monitoring this closely.