Microsoft has released its long-awaited Windows 10 operating system. From today, Windows 10 is officially available as a free upgrade to people using Windows 7 and Windows 8.1 on qualified devices, or pre-installed on new devices.
It might take some time however, before we see the adoption of Windows 10 gather pace after today’s launch.
While the new OS is officially available as a free upgrade as of today, Microsoft will deliver this in waves. Members of the Insider program will receive it first, followed by consumers who reserved a slot in the upgrade queue. While Windows 10 is also available pre-installed on new PC devices from today, a tight release schedule to OEMs and high levels of old PC stock still around in many Western European countries mean that consumers are likely to still see plenty of Windows 8-based devices in their local shops today – and many of these will be offered at very attractive prices. Finally, adoption in the commercial segment usually comes with a delay. The feedback we’re getting here is that there is strong interest from business users in Windows 10, but that noticeable refresh activities are unlikely to happen before some time in 2016.
Microsoft itself expects a phased adoption of Windows 10. During the company’s recent Q4 2015 earnings call, CEO Satya Nadella spoke of “three distinct phases”: the “upgrade phase”, starting now; the autumn time frame, when “you will see the devices from all the OEMs going into the holiday quarter” and “then the enterprise upgrades”.
CONTEXT’s most recent data, covering distributor sales up to 19 July, do not yet show any new PC devices with Windows 10 pre-installed – a fact, which will be down to the relatively late release of the new OS to OEMs. By contrast, all four previous OS releases by Microsoft had seen a ramp up of new devices in distribution a few weeks before their respective launch date. It will be interesting to see when the first Windows 10 devices will show in our data, and how quickly they will then ramp up. CONTEXT will be closely monitoring this.